Rare Events: Why Unlikely Things Happen All the Time!
This week’s video is about how rare events and coincidences affect us.
David J. Hand in his latest book, “The Improbability Principle: “Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day” (Farrar, Straus, and Groux, A Scientific American book, February 2014) explains why the amazingly unlikely happens all the time.
For example, you’re on a vacation in Paris, sitting at a sidewalk café, enjoying a drink. You look up and see your next door neighbor walk by. You think: “Wow, what are the chances of that happening?”
Another example, a friend of mine used to pick up women by offering to give them a free erotic massage; he is quite expert at erotic massage. He would arrange a meeting over the internet and then through many phone calls so he and the woman were both comfortable that neither was a serial killer.
One time a woman showed up for her free erotic massage and was a happy customer. The next week my friend went to the bank, and low and behold, guess who the teller was. Well, they both thought, what are the chances of that happening?
The fact is that coincidences and rare events happen all the time.
The reason for this lies in mathematics and statistics.
The reason is due to the “law of large numbers”. In other words, there are a great many opportunities for the incredibly rare event you witnessed to occur. With so many opportunities, it soon becomes overwhelmingly likely that someone, somewhere, will see such a thing.
A professor at Harvard many years ago created a proof that if something rare happens, say less likely that 1 in 12 million, there is a 41.8% chance it will happen again sometime in the future.
Use It or Lose It:
Whenever something rare happens, or some low probability event, realize that there are so many opportunities for the rare event to occur, it is very likely it will happen to someone, somewhere.
When to Use It:
All the time, so you are not amazed by something that seems improbable.
Or when someone says something improbable happened, you can impress them with your newfound knowledge!
What Do You Think?
Has this ever happened to you? If yes, please share your experience with us in the comments below.
Until next time, behave and as always…Prime Your Pump!
–Howie
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Interesting explanation for coincidences that seem to surprise us!
Dang, I would like to discuss this in person, maybe over a good Scotch or Cabernet, your choice.
I believe that I previously related to you the story of my trip to the historical and genealogical library in San Francisco, where the head librarian turned out to be a high school classmate from the Bronx. We had not seen or talked to each other in almost 50 years. To me, it seemed like I was a pawn on a chessboard, being moved by some mysterious force towards an unknown surprise game ending. Kind of freaked me out then, and still does now.
Joan, as usual, listened in on the video. She then related to me a similar type story that occurred to her when we lived in Santa Maria on the central coast. Joan got an invitation to co-worker Shelly’s bridal shower (don’t worry, not your Shelly). So at the appropriate time at the party, when everyone had a few drinks, cue the entertainment. Of course, a male stripper who, as an extra added bonus, also possessed a great singing voice. So he’s going around jiggling junk and mooning people while singing. No touching allowed. Several weeks later, Joan’s in church, and while singing the hymns, thought she heard a familiar voice in the pew directly behind her. After the service concluded, she turned to look, and there he was, the singing stripper. And they recognized each other.
Having not read Hand’s book nor seen the mathematical proof, I’d like to offer up an observation, which may or may not be valid. In both your example of the erotic masseur and Joan’s embarrassing ecclesiastical moment, the people involved resided in the same town. The probability of such an accidental meeting I’m sure would be quite high. We bump into people we know quite often, at the grocery, the big box store, restaurants, and so on. As I’m sure you do also – colleagues, former students, and professional acquaintances.
“Boy, is life complicated.”