This is Why Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

Dec 2018

In this week’s video, Howie discusses why correlation does not imply causation.

Human beings are frequently very quick to assume A causes B.

For example, a mother may decide that if her 13-year-old son has a messy room (A), he will be a messy thinker, flunk out of school, get involved in crime, wind up in jail, get AIDS, and die in jail (B).

Very often this kind of thinking leads to bad things as correlation does not always imply causation.

To be able to assert that “A” causes “B”, you must meet 3 conditions.

The first condition is…

that there is a correlation between “A” and “B”. In other words, if “A” happens, then “B” happens.

For example, when Paris was beginning to grow into a significant city, people noticed that whenever a baby was born a stork (the bird) was present. This led to the belief that storks bring babies to families.

In fact, there was a statistical correlation between the number of babies born in Paris and the number of storks in Paris at the time.

The second condition is…

that “A” always precedes “B”.

Continuing with our baby-stork example, whenever a baby was born, people saw a stork. The stork always preceded a baby.

The third condition is…

the absence of other causal factors. In other words, there is not something else going on that could make “A” look like it caused “B”.

Now, let’s finish the baby-stork example

By considering other factors that could make it look like storks were always present when babies were born.

At the time Paris was growing very rapidly, and most new buildings had roofs with towers where storks like to live.

So, even though we passed the first two conditions for cause and effect between babies and storks, we failed on this last condition because the more buildings there were, the more storks there were.

This is the other factor that explained why there were storks around when babies were born.

Use It or Lose It – Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

Remember correlation does not imply causation. So, don’t assume “A” causes “B” just because when “A” happens ”B” always follows. Look for other possible explanations.

When to Use It:

Whenever you assume ‘A” causes “B”. You are frequently going to be wrong.

What Do You Think?

Have you ever made an erroneous assumption about “A” causing “B”? If so, please share your experience in the space below.

Until next time, behave and as always…Prime Your Pump!
–Howie

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Ah, the messy room correlation. There is absolutely no amount of parental nagging that will cure the situation. I was a slob growing up which drove my mother bat crap crazy, and still retain certain slob characteristics such as leaving my books and magazines in piles on the furniture or floor. I think “slobbishness” can be transmitted genetically, with my daughter as prime example. She’s a college graduate, a successful career woman, but still does not comprehend the concept of “vacuum cleaner”.

One reads stories in the paper about a police chief bragging about a reduction in crime for his city, due to increased police presence in patrol cars. Actually the reduction was due to installation of high intensity street lights and use of surveillance cameras, plus neighborhood watch groups.

Out here on the left coast, traffic has always been a living bitch. You plan your life around traffic. The average schmuck on the street corner will say that the bad traffic is caused by too many people moving into the area. But why are people moving into the area? Answer – jobs, created by high tech companies like Apple and Google expanding. But the area has been ‘built out’, there’s no more land remaining for housing construction, and what houses are available are too pricey for a newcomer. So the job seekers buy a house or condo in the suburbs and therefore must commute. The suburbs constantly expand, like ripples in a pond. Take a look at a map of California, go east of SF and find a town named Tracy in San Joaquin County. That’s now a Bay Area suburb. Commuters from Tracy can spend 90 minutes or more each way in their car so they can get to their jobs in San Jose or Oakland. Similar situations exist in the South Bay and Marin County. And that’s why traffic sucks.

A really bad joke I heard many years ago – Florida is a long sandy peninsula covered by a lush green carpet of real estate agents.

Please note I’m using a new temporary e-mail address, as my usual address is FUBAR. Don’t know if it got hacked or what, and have not had time to figure it out.

One Reply to “This is Why Correlation Does Not Imply Causation”

Dave Savadge says:

December 7, 2018 at 2:14 pm

Ah, the messy room correlation. There is absolutely no amount of parental nagging that will cure the situation. I was a slob growing up which drove my mother bat crap crazy, and still retain certain slob characteristics such as leaving my books and magazines in piles on the furniture or floor. I think “slobbishness” can be transmitted genetically, with my daughter as prime example. She’s a college graduate, a successful career woman, but still does not comprehend the concept of “vacuum cleaner”.

One reads stories in the paper about a police chief bragging about a reduction in crime for his city, due to increased police presence in patrol cars. Actually the reduction was due to installation of high intensity street lights and use of surveillance cameras, plus neighborhood watch groups.

Out here on the left coast, traffic has always been a living bitch. You plan your life around traffic. The average schmuck on the street corner will say that the bad traffic is caused by too many people moving into the area. But why are people moving into the area? Answer – jobs, created by high tech companies like Apple and Google expanding. But the area has been ‘built out’, there’s no more land remaining for housing construction, and what houses are available are too pricey for a newcomer. So the job seekers buy a house or condo in the suburbs and therefore must commute. The suburbs constantly expand, like ripples in a pond. Take a look at a map of California, go east of SF and find a town named Tracy in San Joaquin County. That’s now a Bay Area suburb. Commuters from Tracy can spend 90 minutes or more each way in their car so they can get to their jobs in San Jose or Oakland. Similar situations exist in the South Bay and Marin County. And that’s why traffic sucks.

A really bad joke I heard many years ago – Florida is a long sandy peninsula covered by a lush green carpet of real estate agents.

Please note I’m using a new temporary e-mail address, as my usual address is FUBAR. Don’t know if it got hacked or what, and have not had time to figure it out.